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SPC MD 1692

SPC MD 1692

[html]MD 1692 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
       
MD 1692 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1692
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022

Areas affected...Central and Northeastern North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 180619Z - 180815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal wind-damage threat will be possible over the
next couple of hours across parts of central and northeastern North
Dakota. The threat is expected to be too isolated for weather watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough
moving southeastward across central North Dakota. Scattered
thunderstorms have developed over the last hour in north-central
North Dakota, just ahead of the trough. The storms are located
within a pocket of moderate instability, where the RAP is estimating
MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. Regional WSR-88D VWPs in
northern North Dakota have 0-6 km shear near 25 knots, with some
speed shear noted in the 0-3 km AGL layer. Although this may be
enough to support an isolated wind-damage threat over the next few
hours, the thermodynamic and shear environment is marginal, and any
severe threat should remain localized.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 08/18/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   48939794 48779731 48279716 47499788 47079884 46970013
            47050085 47340140 47800142 48410042 48829949 48909913
            48919866 48939794


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Source: SPC MD 1692 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1692.html)