Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from
central/eastern Texas into the Southeast, and over portions of the
central Plains. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with this
activity.

...Central Plains...
A shortwave trough is forecast to develop southward from the
Canadian Prairies into the Plains, providing modest northwesterly
flow aloft along the western periphery of the eastern trough. At the
surface, modest boundary-layer moisture will reside ahead of a
south/southeastward-advancing cold front. A lack of better quality
moisture will limit instability, but heating into the 80s F and
steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE values of 500-1500
J/kg. Effective shear around 30 kt will support at least a transient
supercell threat, along with a few organized clusters during the
afternoon along/ahead of the front. Strong to severe gusts and
marginally severe hail will be possible with the strongest cells
through early evening.

...Central TX into the Southeast...
Substantial boundary-layer moisture will remain ahead of the
east-west-oriented surface front. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
to low 70s F and areas of strong heating will result in moderate to
strong instability, with MLCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg. PWAT
values will be high at around 2 inches. Vertical shear will remain
weak, with mostly unidirectional/westerly deep-layer flow over the
region. The co*bination of strong instability and weak shear in the
presence of a surface boundary will mainly support initially intense
updrafts with limited organization. As a result, the main severe
threat with thunderstorm clusters through the afternoon will be
limited to damaging gusts in water-loaded downdrafts.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 08/18/2022