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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible Friday across parts of
the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Occasional hail and
damaging winds should be the main threats.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
An upper trough/low is forecast to move slowly eastward across the
Upper Midwest on Friday. A belt of 25-40 kt west-northwesterly
mid-level winds should acco*pany this feature, and overspread parts
of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest and mid MS Valley
regions through the day. A weak surface low will be present beneath
the upper low, and it should develop rather slowly
east-southeastward through the period. Modest low-level moisture in
place ahead of a cold front across the northern/central Plains and
Upper Midwest should aid thunderstorm development across parts of
these areas by Friday afternoon.

Even with the somewhat limited low-level moisture forecast, cool
mid-level temperatures and daytime heating should aid the
development of weak to moderate instability, with most guidance
suggesting MLCAPE ranging around 1000-2000 J/kg by late Friday
afternoon along/ahead of the front. Current expectations are for
thunderstorms to gradually increase in coverage and intensity along
the length of the front from parts of central/eastern IA into
northern/western MO and eastern/central KS. These areas should have
the best chance for isolated severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon
and evening, as 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear encourages some updraft
organization. A mix of multicells and marginal supercells appears
possible, with a threat for both occasional severe hail and damaging
winds apparent.

...Southeast...
Multiple rounds of convection are forecast across the Southeast
prior to Friday along/south of a weak stalled front. It still
remains unclear whether sufficient instability will develop
south/east of this boundary Friday afternoon to support robust
convection. Forecast effective bulk shear should also be only
marginally supportive of organized thunderstorms across this region,
as a large-scale upper trough and modest mid-level winds persist
across much of the eastern CONUS. At this time, have opted to not
include a broad Marginal Risk for damaging winds across the
Southeast along/south of the front. But, low severe probabilities
may eventually be needed if a focused corridor of favorable
instability aligned with loosely organized convection beco*es more
apparent.

..Gleason.. 08/18/2022