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Mesoscale Discussion 1691
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0542 PM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022

Areas affected...Portions of far northeast Montana into far
northwest North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 172242Z - 180015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple severe hailstones or wind gusts may acco*pany
storms crossing the international border, as well as any additional
storms that can develop and mature. A WW issuance is not expected
since the severe threat should remain localized and brief.

DISCUSSION...A transient supercell structure is poised to cross the
Canadian border shortly and is associated with a southward sagging
cold front. In addition to the ongoing storm, additional storms may
develop immediately southward along the cold front over the next
couple of hours. This potential cluster of storms is progressing
into a marginally unstable airmass, characterized by 1000 J/kg
SB/MLCAPE. Given the relatively dry boundary layer, the primary
contributor the available buoyancy would be 8+ C/km tropospheric
lapse rates (per 22Z mesonanalysis). RAP forecast soundings also
show some slight low-level curvature to the hodographs, which also
appreciably elongate, contributing to 30-40 kts of effective bulk
shear. As such, any storms that mature will likely beco*e transient
supercells supporting a severe hail/wind risk. Nonetheless, some
MLCINH is in place given the dry boundary layer, so the severe
threat is expected to be relatively localized and brief. A WW
issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri/Edwards.. 08/17/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON   47100553 47470591 48010577 48540529 48940490 49180468
            49320410 49060369 48050303 47530315 47150379 47060484
            47100553