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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
COASTAL/EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...AND A SMALL PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Thursday over
parts of east/coastal Texas into the Southeast, and a small portion
of the central Plains.

...c*astal/East Texas into the Southeast...
A surface front should remain draped across parts of the southern
Plains into the Southeast on Thursday. These regions will be on the
southern extent of any appreciable mid-level flow associated with an
upper trough that will remain over the central/eastern states.
Still, a rather moist low-level airmass, with surface dewpoints
generally in the low to mid 70s, will likely remain in place along
and south of the front. Moderate instability characterized by MLCAPE
ranging from 2000-3000+ J/kg should develop across these regions
where robust diurnal heating can occur. There is still some
uncertainty in where the greatest instability will develop, with the
potentially stabilizing influences of convection ongoing Thursday
morning, as well as lingering cloudiness. Still, there is enough of
a convective signal in most guidance for two areas of at least
scattered convection that should develop along/south of the front
Thursday afternoon.

One area extends from parts of coastal/east TX into the central Gulf
Coast states. This region will have very weak deep-layer shear, but
some clustering of convection may still occur as thunderstorms
spread east-southeastward to the coast through early Thursday
evening. Isolated damaging winds should be the main threat with this
activity as low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen. The other area
of interest extends from parts of north FL into southern/coastal GA
and vicinity. A weak, convectively enhanced mid-level perturbation
on the southern periphery of the upper trough may move across this
region through the day. The presence of 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear
and moderate instability ahead of a front should encourage modest
updraft organization. Mainly multicells capable of producing
isolated damaging winds should be the main severe threat as
thunderstorms spread eastward to/off the Atlantic Coast through
early Thursday evening. Some marginally severe hail may also occur
with any convection that can remain semi-discrete.

...Central Plains...
Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to persist over much of the
central and eastern CONUS on Thursday. A low-amplitude perturbation
embedded within this upper trough should develop southward across
the northern/central Plains through Thursday evening. Modest
low-level moisture should be in place ahead of a cold front that
should also move southward across the same regions. Instability may
remain somewhat limited, with MLCAPE generally 500-1500 J/kg. But,
enough enhancement to the mid-level north-northwesterly flow should
be present to support around 25-35 kt of effective bulk shear and
some updraft organization. A mix of multicells and perhaps marginal
supercells may develop along or just ahead of the front Thursday
afternoon, with an isolated severe threat focused mainly over parts
of NE and vicinity. Both strong to severe winds and marginally
severe hail appear possible with the more robust cores, before
convection weakens Thursday evening with the loss of daytime
heating.

..Gleason.. 08/17/2022