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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE OZARKS AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS NORTHERN MN INTO CENTRAL ND......

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be possible
this afternoon/evening for parts of the Ozarks, lower Mississippi
Valley, southern High Plains, and northern Minnesota vicinity.

...North Dakota...

The Marginal risk has been expanded westward into parts of central
ND with the 20z update. Isolated thunderstorms have developed near a
weak surface boundary oriented west to east/northeast from central
ND into northwest MN. Visible satellite imagery has shown an
expanding cumulus field near the boundary this afternoon. Vertical
shear will remain modest, but MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and enhanced
low-level shear along the boundary, coupled with steep low-level
lapse rates, could support a few strong gusts with storms that
develop through early evening. 

...Southern High Plains to the Ozarks/Lower MS Valley...

The ongoing outlook remains unchanged. Isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern High
Plains to the Lower MS Valley through early evening. Reference MCDs
1686 and 1687 for more details regarding short term severe
potential.

..Leitman.. 08/16/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022/

...Ozarks/lower MS Valley/southern Plains through this evening...
A diffuse MCV over northern MO will move southeastward today, within
a band of 30-40 kt midlevel flow (per regional VWPs).  Elevated
convection has persisted from overnight into this morning in a zone
of warm advection over southern MO, and clouds/differential heating
will reinforce a baroclinic zone across southern/western AR into
southwestern MO.  This baroclinic zone will serve to focus
additional thunderstorm development later this afternoon near the
MO/AR/OK border intersection, and storms will subsequently move
southeastward through the evening.  There will be a narrow corridor
of overlap of moderate buoyancy and somewhat stronger vertical shear
along the surface boundary where some low-end supercell potential
will exist (at the northeast edge of the stronger surface heating
and deeper mixing).  Isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail
will be possible with any supercells that form.  

Otherwise, a few cells/clusters may form along the slow-moving front
farther southeast toward central MS, where MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg
and DCAPE near 1000 J/kg will support the potential for isolated
strong/damaging downbursts.  Buoyancy will be weaker in the warm
sector farther west along the cold front in OK/eastern TX Panhandle
and storm coverage is in question.  If storms do form, deep
inverted-v profiles and large DCAPE (> 1500 J/kg) will support the
threat for isolated microbursts.

...Southeast CO/northeast NM vicinity this afternoon/evening...
Low-level flow is expected to beco*e weak upslope in a post-frontal
environment from southeast CO into northeast NM by later this
afternoon.  Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly
steep within the lingering monsoonal moisture plume, boundary-layer
dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s and surface heating will
result in MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg with minimal convective
inhibition.  Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid
afternoon along and just east of the higher terrain, and convection
will spread east-southeastward onto the High Plains.  Steepening
low-level lapse rates and clustering/upscale growth may support
isolated strong outflow gusts.

...Northern MN and vicinity this afternoon/evening...
A convectively-enhanced shortwave trough near the MN/ON/MB border
intersection will move slowly east-southeastward near the
international border through the afternoon.  An associated wind
shift/weak cold front extends west-southwestward from northwest MN
into eastern ND.  Ascent along the wind shift, in co*bination with
pockets of surface heating and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s,
will support scattered thunderstorm development this
afternoon/evening.  MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and modest vertical
shear will support isolated marginally severe hail and
strong/damaging outflow gusts.