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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE OZARKS AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be possible
this afternoon/evening for parts of the Ozarks, lower Mississippi
Valley, southern High Plains, and northern Minnesota vicinity.

...Ozarks/lower MS Valley/southern Plains through this evening...
A diffuse MCV over northern MO will move southeastward today, within
a band of 30-40 kt midlevel flow (per regional VWPs).  Elevated
convection has persisted from overnight into this morning in a zone
of warm advection over southern MO, and clouds/differential heating
will reinforce a baroclinic zone across southern/western AR into
southwestern MO.  This baroclinic zone will serve to focus
additional thunderstorm development later this afternoon near the
MO/AR/OK border intersection, and storms will subsequently move
southeastward through the evening.  There will be a narrow corridor
of overlap of moderate buoyancy and somewhat stronger vertical shear
along the surface boundary where some low-end supercell potential
will exist (at the northeast edge of the stronger surface heating
and deeper mixing).  Isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail
will be possible with any supercells that form.  

Otherwise, a few cells/clusters may form along the slow-moving front
farther southeast toward central MS, where MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg
and DCAPE near 1000 J/kg will support the potential for isolated
strong/damaging downbursts.  Buoyancy will be weaker in the warm
sector farther west along the cold front in OK/eastern TX Panhandle
and storm coverage is in question.  If storms do form, deep
inverted-v profiles and large DCAPE (> 1500 J/kg) will support the
threat for isolated microbursts.

...Southeast CO/northeast NM vicinity this afternoon/evening...
Low-level flow is expected to beco*e weak upslope in a post-frontal
environment from southeast CO into northeast NM by later this
afternoon.  Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly
steep within the lingering monsoonal moisture plume, boundary-layer
dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s and surface heating will
result in MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg with minimal convective
inhibition.  Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid
afternoon along and just east of the higher terrain, and convection
will spread east-southeastward onto the High Plains.  Steepening
low-level lapse rates and clustering/upscale growth may support
isolated strong outflow gusts.

...Northern MN and vicinity this afternoon/evening...
A convectively-enhanced shortwave trough near the MN/ON/MB border
intersection will move slowly east-southeastward near the
international border through the afternoon.  An associated wind
shift/weak cold front extends west-southwestward from northwest MN
into eastern ND.  Ascent along the wind shift, in co*bination with
pockets of surface heating and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s,
will support scattered thunderstorm development this
afternoon/evening.  MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and modest vertical
shear will support isolated marginally severe hail and
strong/damaging outflow gusts.

..Thompson/Wendt.. 08/16/2022