Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS
TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND
THE UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Tuesday across
parts of the Ozarks into the lower Mississippi Valley and central
Gulf Coast. A few strong/severe thunderstorms may also occur across
the upper Red River Valley and over the southern High Plains.
Damaging winds should be the main threat, but some hail may also
occur.

...Ozarks to Central Gulf Coast...

Negligible-very weak height falls will spread across eastern KS/MO
into the mid South Tuesday in response to a short-wave trough that
will dig southeast into this region. Early this morning this feature
was located over eastern NE/IA and scattered deep convection has
developed along the cool side of a front across southern NE into
northern MO. This activity will spread/develop southeast within a
warm advection regime and be ongoing at the start of the period.
Subsequent southeast movement should result in this convection
spreading across the mid South during the early afternoon. This
convection is not expected to be particularly severe but strong
surface heating across OK into western AR/lower MS Valley should aid
buoyancy for possible redevelopment along the front/outflow
boundaries. Locally damaging winds will likely be the primary risk
with the more robust convection.

...Southern High Plains...

Strong surface heating across the TX Panhandle into northeast NM
will result in steep low-level lapse rates and modest buoyancy by
early afternoon. Latest analysis suggests a pronounced surface front
has surged across northwest KS/eastern CO. This boundary will
advance into northeast NM later today and provide the focus for
renewed convection. While deep-layer flow will remain weak,
thermodynamic environment should support gusty winds with the more
robust updrafts.

...Upper Red River Valley...

Weak short-wave trough will dig southeast into northern MN by late
afternoon. This feature is expected to encourage a weak surface low
to settle into the northeast corner of ND by peak heating. Trailing
surface boundary across eastern ND will likely serve as the focus
for possible isolated robust thunderstorms by late afternoon as
convective temperatures are breached. Gusty winds will be the main
threat if storms develop along the eastern plume of steeper lapse
rates, as low-level convergence will be maximized along the wind
shift.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/16/2022