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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0816 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...PLAINS...AND SOUTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may linger across parts of the
Carolinas for the next few hours. An isolated severe wind/hail
threat may also develop across parts of the central and northern
Plains this evening.

...01Z Update...

Weak short-wave trough appears to be digging southeast across the
southern Appalachians region early this evening. Scattered
convection, at times robust, currently arcs from central AL-central
GA-southern NC. This activity appears to be aided in part by the
short wave with more concentrated activity across the Carolinas in
response to stronger low-level warm advection. While an organized
band of storms has evolved from north of CAE-ILM, much of this
activity is sub-severe as it propagates toward the Atlantic Coast.
Some threat for isolated damaging winds will be noted with this
activity for the next several hours. Reference MCD #1685 for more
detailed information.

Across the Plains, very isolated robust updrafts have developed from
near BIS into northwest SD. This activity has evolved near a weak
wind shift, where low-level lapse rates are very steep, with
negligible inhibition. 00z sounding from BIS exhibited ample
buoyancy for robust updrafts but surface-6km wind fields are quite
weak and convection should remain isolated this evening.

Farther south, a weak short-wave trough is digging southeast across
central NE-northeast CO. This feature will likely aid additional
convective development across the central Plains during the
overnight hours north of a pronounced surface front. Even so, the
primary risk with this activity should be gusty winds and perhaps
marginally severe hail.

Westward-moving tropical disturbance has advanced across most of
south TX with only the eastern-most bands lingering near the Rio
Grande River. Isolated severe threat may linger with this band for
the next few hours before it shifts west of the international
border.

..Darrow.. 08/16/2022