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Mesoscale Discussion 1684
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

Areas affected...portions of southwestern into north-central North
Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 152223Z - 160000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple severe hailstones may acco*pany the stronger
storms and a landspout tornado cannot be ruled out, especially in
northern North Dakota. A WW issuance is not expected since the
severe threat should be sparse.

DISCUSSION...c*nvective initiation has occurred across northeast
McLean County, ND along a baroclinic zone, close to the center of
weak surface low pressure. With clearing skies across central into
western ND, stronger surface heating beneath 8+ C/km mid-level lapse
rates is contributing to 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE. While deep-layer shear
is weak, the 22Z mesoanalysis depicts a modest amount of low-level
vertical-oriented vorticity and 125+ J/kg 0-3km CAPE near the low
center. As such, any storms that can beco*e established may exhibit
multicellular or transient supercell structure. Large hail is the
main concern with stronger storms, although any storm that can
anchor to the baroclinic boundary may support a landspout tornado,
especially in northern ND. Nonetheless, the severe threat should
remain sparse and a WW issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri/Edwards.. 08/15/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   46990308 48290206 48910105 49070019 49059911 48769858
            48079871 47539961 47000073 46760162 46730200 46990308