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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday
across parts of the Ozarks into the lower Mississippi Valley and
central Gulf Coast. Occasional damaging winds should be the main
threat, but some hail may also occur.

...Synopsis...
A corridor of modest northwesterly flow aloft is expected to be in
place from the northern Plains through the Mid-South on Tuesday
morning, situated between upper ridging from the southern Plains
into the Great Basin and upper troughing from the Northeast into FL.
This western ridge/eastern trough upper pattern is forecast to
persist throughout the period as a shortwave trough moves through
the corridor of northwesterly flow from the Lower MO Valley through
the TN Valley into the Carolinas.

Surface pattern early Tuesday morning will likely feature a low over
southeast KS, with a diffuse stationary boundary extending
southeastward from this low to another low near the southern GA/SC
border. Boundary over the Southeast is expected to remain largely in
place, while a cold front progresses southward through OK and the TX
Panhandle.

...Ozark Plateau into the Lower MS Valley...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the
beginning of the period over MO, within the warm-air advection to
the northeast of the surface low mentioned in the synopsis. This
early morning activity should persist into the early afternoon
before diminishing in tandem with weakening low to mid-level
westerly flow. 

Addition storm development is anticipated during the afternoon in
the vicinity of the stationary front, where low-level convergence
will co*bine with ample low-level moisture and strong daytime
heating to foster convective initiation. These storms will be
displaced south of the stronger mid-level flow, but veering wind
profiles will still support moderate vertical shear and the
potential for a few stronger, more organized storm structures,
particularly across northern and central AR. A mix of multicells and
marginal supercells is possible, with isolated strong to damaging
winds and some hail both possible.

Farther south, a more buoyant but less sheared air mass is
anticipated, supporting the threat for a few water-loaded downbursts
with any stronger, more persistent storms.

..Mosier.. 08/15/2022