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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts and large hail are possible over parts of the
northern Rockies and vicinity.

...Discussion...
No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook.

..Smith.. 08/12/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022/

...Northern Rockies through late evening...
Embedded speed maxima will move north-northeastward from the Great
Basin to the northern Rockies (as evidenced by the ongoing isolated
storms), between a closed low off the WA/OR coasts, and west of
midlevel high over the central CONUS.  Steep lapse rates persist
over the Great Basin/northern Rockies, around the western periphery
of the monsoonal moisture plume with boundary-layer dewpoints in the
55-60 F range.  Modified versions of the 12z soundings from BOI/OTX
suggest the potential for moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of
1000 J/kg) with modestly deep inverted-v profiles, while effective
bulk shear of 30-40 kt will be sufficient for some supercell
structures.  Scattered cells/clusters are expected this afternoon
over the higher terrain with surface heating, and in the zone of
weak ascent associated with the embedded speed maxima.  Isolated
damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats with these
storms across northern ID and vicinity this afternoon, while
high-based convection with strong outflow potential will spread east
into western MT this evening.

...Southeast states this afternoon...
A midlevel shortwave trough is digging southeastward over the
southern Appalachians, as an associated surface cold front likewise
progresses southward across the Carolinas/GA/AL.  Convection has
been ongoing this morning from eastern NC to central SC, and the
associated clouds/rain will inhibit additional surface heating
across coastal NC.  Some cloud breaks from SC across GA/AL will
allow destabilization through the afternoon, but poor lapse rates
will tend to limit buoyancy and the potential for intense
downdrafts.