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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

The forecast remains on track with no areas introduced. Localized
elevated conditions remain probable across the central Plains -
particularly across portions of western NE. However, latest ensemble
guidance maintains somewhat meager probability for sufficiently
prolonged and widespread elevated conditions. Localized elevated
conditions are also possible across parts of southern OR Thursday
afternoon, but as with the central Plains, the overall ensemble
signal for a widespread threat appears low at this time. See the
previous discussion for additional details.

..Moore.. 08/10/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022/

...Synopsis...
Across the CONUS, high pressure will remain dominant as it shifts 
eastward and strengthens over the central Rockies. To the west, the
upper low off the northwestern coast will stall and begin to weaken
as it remains offshore. Flow aloft east of the low will also slacken
as the ridge builds, limiting strong surface flow over much of the
West. Mid-level moisture in place will support another day of
scattered, mostly wet, thunderstorms across the western US. With
flow aloft weakening and wetting rain expected, confidence in
sustained fire weather concerns is low.

...Central High Plains...
As the upper ridge shifts eastward and strengthens, mid-level flow
should weaken across much of the central Rockies and High Plains.
Despite limited upper-air support, a lee trough is forecast to
develop, bolstering local winds to around 15 mph. Warm temperature
and afternoon RH below 25% beneath the ridge will support a few
hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions within dry fuels.
Should forecast winds increase, more sustained elevated conditions
will be possible. However, confidence is low.

...Central/Northern Rockies...
With lingering mid-level moisture in place beneath the upper ridge,
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible above
the higher terrain Thursday. With some model guidance hinting at LCL
heights above 2 to 3 km, an occasional dry strike is possible within
receptive fuels. However, flow aloft is weak and PWATs (~1 inch)
remain relatively high suggesting slow-moving storms and better
wetting rain potential in addition to prior accumulation over the
last several days. While some dry lightning is possible, confidence
is too low to introduce any probabilities.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...