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Mesoscale Discussion 1667
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 PM CDT Mon Aug 08 2022

Areas affected...portions of far northeast Ohio into extreme
northwest Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 082329Z - 090030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts may occur with an approaching
line of storms moving ashore. The severe threat is expected to
remain brief and localized.

DISCUSSION...KCLE and MRMS mosaic radar imagery, and NLDN lightning
data all depict the strengthening of a line of thunderstorms over
lake Ontario that is rapidly approaching the OH shoreline. This line
of storms is located along the southern end of relatively stronger
500 mb flow, with 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear vectors showing
some normal orientation to the strengthening convection. 1000-1500
J/kg MLCAPE does reside ahead of the storms on land, but in a
relatively narrow corridor. 23Z mesoanalysis depicts a small region
of 7 C/km 0-3km lapse rates across northeast OH, and this may
promote efficient downward momentum transport and subsequent
isolated damaging gust potential over the next couple of hours.
Thereafter, storms should gradually wane in intensity as they
approach more stable air and nocturnal cooling sets in.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/08/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   41158286 41478215 41648140 41868072 41968022 41827989
            41497987 41068025 40898097 40798153 40788226 40818269
            41158286