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Mesoscale Discussion 0514
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

Areas affected...far eastern Texas into northern Louisiana and parts
of western Mississippi

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 135...

Valid 171955Z - 172230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 135
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms are likely to increase and coverage and intensity
over the next few hours, with large damaging hail and wind gusts the
most likely threats.

DISCUSSION...A cold front continues to push east across TX, now
linking up with the east-west oriented boundary currently near
Shreveport and extending eastward near I-20. Initial storms have
shown signs of sporadic hail, but have been rather disorganized as
they have remained north of the front.

The air mass across the warm sector continues to destabilize, with
MUCAPE now to 3000 J/kg. In addition, deep-layer shear remains quite
favorable for organized convection capable damaging hail and wind
gusts.

Over the past 2 hours, GPS precipitable water sensors have shown a
marked diurnal increase, related to the deepening boundary layer.
This should aid new development along the intersecting frontal and
outflow boundaries over northwest LA, with severe cells eventually
progressing southeastward across LA later today.

Farther east, another watch will likely be needed for the remainder
of northern LA and extending into MS if storm coverage increases
upstream and beco*e severe. The instability-rich air mass and
favorable flow regime would likely maintain the severe threat into
the evening.

..Jewell.. 04/17/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   32679364 32939306 33019202 33009108 32869053 32549001
            31978982 31538999 31399066 31339159 31449239 31619412
            31899441 32299423 32679364