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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Mon Aug 08 2022

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts may occur today over
parts of southern Lower Michigan, northern Indiana and northern
Ohio.

...Synopsis...
The mid/upper-level pattern will be characterized by lengthy but
messy ridging extending from a high over the Four Corners region
eastward past the southern Appalachians, and northwestward across
parts of the inland Pacific Northwest.  A synoptic-scale cyclone
will remain centered well offshore from northern CA, and is forecast
to drift eastward through the period.  Associated low-level warm/
moist advection will co*bine with diurnal heating to contribute to
high-based thunderstorm potential approximately beneath the ridging
from NV to the Columbia Gorge region, and isolated strong gusts may
occur.  Gusts approaching severe limits are possible atop deep,
well-mixed subcloud layers from other thunderstorms across the AZ
monsoonal regime, and eastward to the southern Plains.  However,
severe potential in those areas appears too isolated and unfocused
for any unconditional outlook areas at this time. 

Farther north, a nearly zonal middle/upper-level flow belt will
persist near the Canadian border from WA to MN, and across the Upper
Great Lakes to ME.  Within that, a shortwave trough was evident in
moisture-channel imagery across western Lake Superior and adjoining
portions of northwestern ON, southwestward to the FSD/SUX area. 
This perturbation is forecast to weaken gradually as it moves
eastward through the period.  This feature should reach eastern
Upper and western Lower MI by 00Z, then accelerate eastward to the
St. Lawrence Valley below Lake Ontario by 12Z, as another shortwave
trough amplifies across the Upper Great Lakes.  

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a frontal-wave low over central
Lake Michigan, with cold front southwestward across southeastern IA,
eastern KS, the TX Panhandle, and east-central NM.  A
quasistationary front was drawn from the low over Lake Huron to the
Adirondacks and southern ME.  By 00Z, the low should move eastward
along the front to southern ON near Lake Huron, with the front over
southern Lower MI, northwestern IN, central IL, southwestern MO, and
south-central KS, beco*ing a warm front over the northern TX
Panhandle and northeastern NM.  

...Southern Upper Great Lakes...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the midday
hours into this afternoon, in a belt along/ahead of the surface cold
front, as weak large-scale lift spreads over the area ahead of the
shortwave trough.  This activity will offer strong, water-loaded
downdrafts with damaging-wind potential.  Isolated, marginally
severe gusts also are possible.  This potential may spread into
parts of northern OH, and/or acco*pany backbuilding convection into
northern IN, before weakening this evening.  

Rich low-level moisture will remain over the region, with surface
dewpoints co*monly in the low/middle 70s F, and PW co*monly around
2.25 inches.  Extent and intensity of insolation is uncertain, given
the likely persistence of cloud cover over much of the region from
convection/precip now over northern IL and southern WI.  However,
even muted heating should help to offset modest mid/upper-level
lapse rates and boost peak MLCAPE into the 1500-2000 J/kg range
(locally/briefly higher), supporting development in the presence of
weak ambient MLCINH.  Modest deep shear (e.g., effective-shear
magnitudes around 20-30 kt) should support a few locally strong-
severe multicells, but preclude a better-organized event.

..Edwards/Marsh.. 08/08/2022