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Mesoscale Discussion 0747
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0525 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025

Areas affected...pars of the Rio Grande Valley in southern Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241...

Valid 082225Z - 090000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells
persist across the Watch area. Hail and isolated damaging winds
remain likely this evening.

DISCUSSION...As of 2220 UTC, scattered strong to severe storms were
ongoing across much of the Rio Grande Valley and south TX. Several
supercells were noted across Zapata/Jim Hogg and Dimmit Counties.
The environment ahead of these storms, and additional storms
crossing the border, remains broadly favorable for severe weather
with 40-50 kt of effective shear and 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Hail
remains the primary severe risk with steep mid-level lapse rates and
the supercell mode. However, some clustering has been noted along
the diffuse front farther north. This should continue into the
evening as noted by some CAMS. This may support a greater risk for
damaging winds across the Rio Grande Valley and south TX into
tonight. Given the ongoing storms, and additional development
crossing the border through the next few hours, the severe risk will
continue across much of WW241.

..Lyons.. 05/08/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   29620133 29800055 29679978 28769874 27379829 26479782
            25979744 25889775 26189907 26709934 28130036 29330112
            29620133 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN