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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND THE OZARKS...AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO PARTS OF FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the
southern Plains into the Ozarks, and separately over southeast
Georgia into portions of Florida.

...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was the removal of
severe-thunderstorm probabilities over the central Gulf Coast --
where a remnant MCS has moved offshore.

..Weinman.. 05/07/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/

...Texas to the Central Gulf Coast...
Extensive convection and related outflow has shunted greater
low-level moisture and an effective front off most of the TX Coast
this morning. Ongoing clusters/supercells just south of the LA Coast
are generally expected to remain offshore this afternoon as they
track eastward along/near the surface boundary. A small and somewhat
separate cluster with a history of producing measured severe winds
near New Orleans should track along/near the MS/AL Coast over the
next few hours while weakening, as it will remain north of the
outflow boundary/front. Even so, modest heating of a residually
moist low-level airmass may support weak MUCAPE and an isolated
threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado with this activity.

The potential for renewed convective development this afternoon
across TX appears low, as the upper low over OK moves northeastward
towards the Ozarks. Neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights
suggest nebulous large-scale forcing at best, and perhaps some
subsidence through the day. While a strong thunderstorm or two may
still develop across south-central TX and vicinity near the stalled
front, the overall severe potential appears too low/conditional to
maintain even Marginal Risk caliber severe probabilities with this
update.

...Central/Eastern Oklahoma into Western Arkansas...
A mid/upper-level low over KS/OK will progress eastward to the
Ozarks/Lower MO Valley by tonight, acco*panied by a belt of enhanced
west-southwesterly mid-level winds on its southern periphery. A weak
surface low and modest low-level convergence will exist this
afternoon across central/eastern OK. But, weak instability is still
expected to develop as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool
pocket (around -13 to -18 C at 500mb), with around 500-800 J/kg
MLCAPE plausible with peak afternoon heating. Some of the
lower-topped convection that develops could beco*e strong to locally
severe with hail possible from mid/late afternoon into this evening.
Brief funnel/tornado potential may also diurnally exist given
ambient low-level vorticity/steep lapse rates in proximity to the
upper low. This activity is expected to quickly weaken with eastward
extent this evening with the loss of daytime heating.

...Florida/Coastal Georgia...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon
and early evening along and south of a front draped across
coastal/southeast GA into parts of FL. Moderate instability and
sufficient deep-layer shear should be present across these regions
to support some updraft organization. Occasional severe hail and
damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores.