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Mesoscale Discussion 0732
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025

Areas affected...parts of the lower Rio Grande Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 070456Z - 070700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated intense supercell, or perhaps small organizing
cluster of storms, may continue to evolve west of the lower Rio
Grande Valley during the next few hours, before beginning to move
across the Red River toward 3-4 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Moist upslope flow west of the Rio Grande River has
contributed to the initiation of thunderstorm development along the
higher terrain, around 75-80 miles southwest of Laredo.  This may be
aided by forcing associated with a weak a mid-level short wave
trough embedded within southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on the
order of 30-40 kt.  At mid/upper levels this flow is strong and
conducive to supercell development, particularly given inflow of
seasonably moist air characterized by large CAPE, beneath steep
lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates.  

Although substantive near-surface drying has occurred across the
Cotulla vicinity into the areas south of Laredo, with continued
veering of near-surface flow from northerly to easterly, westward
advection of mid 70s+ surface dew points up the lower Rio Grande
Valley is likely to continue overnight.  Various model output
suggests that this may beco*e supportive of at least isolated
thunderstorm development propagating off the higher terrain, and
across the Rio Grande River by 08-09Z.  Given the environment, this
could include a supercell capable of producing large hail and strong
surface gusts.

..Kerr/Smith.. 05/07/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON   28119960 27409854 26699874 26330030 26960088 28119960 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN