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Mesoscale Discussion 0728
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025

Areas affected...parts of the Texas Coastal Plain

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 070035Z - 070230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along a cold front/outflow
boundary will likely pose a large hail threat across parts of the TX
Coastal Plain for the next few hours. Watch issuance is probable
based on recent convective trends.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics and GOES IR imagery show
multiple thunderstorms and convective towers developing along a
southeastward moving cold front/outflow boundary along the TX
Coastal Plain. The near-storm convective environment remains very
favorable for organized convection with around 4000 J/kg MLCAPE and
roughly 60 knots of effective bulk shear recently sampled by the 00
UTC CRP sounding. This environment will support vigorous
thunderstorm development along the boundary with primarily a large
to very large hail threat (possibly upwards of 2.0 to 3.5 inches in
diameter). Stronger capping with southwestward extend should limit
storm coverage, but will also promote a higher probability for
discrete, potentially long-lived convection. Given the recent radar
trends of the developing cells (echo tops beginning to exceed 40-50
kft), watch issuance appears probable.

..Moore/Smith.. 05/07/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   27689711 27549718 27379733 27329746 27389775 27569870
            27719885 27919881 28199863 28849798 29339730 29469693
            29449666 29259649 29079638 28809628 28589623 28439625
            28409636 27969693 27689711 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN