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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of the southern
Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Some storms will be
capable of producing severe gusts, large to very large hail, and
tornadoes. Strong tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to
severe storms with hail and marginally severe gusts may also occur
in the northern Mid-Atlantic.

...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley...
At mid-levels, a low will move into the southern Rockies today, as
an associated 60 to 70 knot jet streak translates northeastward
across the southern Plains. Within the exit region of the jet,
scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing in west Texas at
the start of the period, along the western edge of a moist airmass.
The moist airmass will be located over much of the eastern half of
Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop around
midday from north-central Texas into southern Oklahoma, in
association with warm advection. A severe threat is expected to
develop with this convection, and should increase during the
afternoon. In areas that heat up, supercells with large hail and
severe gusts will be possible. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches
in diameter may occur with the more intense supercell updrafts,
mainly in northwest and central Texas where mid-level lapse rates
are forecast to be steep.

Further to the southeast, the airmass is likely to remain
undisturbed through midday. A warm front will move slowly northward
across central and southeast Texas. From this front southward,
surface dewpoints will likely be from the upper 60s to mid 70s F. As
surface temperatures warm during the day, strong instability is
forecast to develop. The models are in reasonably good agreement
that MLCAPE will peak between 3000 and 4000 J/kg during the
afternoon. In addition, the mid-level jet will move into the
southern Plains, creating strong deep-layer shear favorable for
supercells. In response, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast
to develop across southeast Texas. Forecast soundings to the
northwest of the Houston area increase 0-3 km storm-relative
helicity into the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range. This shear environment
will be favorable for supercells and tornadoes. A few strong
tornadoes will be possible within parts of the airmass that heat up
the most and remain undisturbed into the early afternoon. MCS
development appears likely during the afternoon across east Texas.
Rotating storms within the MCS will be capable of large hail and
severe gusts. This threat should spread eastward into the lower
Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and early evening.

...Northern Mid-Atlantic...
A mid-level low will move northeastward across the Ohio Valley
today, as a front advances eastward through the central Appalachians
into the Mid-Atlantic. An axis of low-level moisture will be located
ahead of the front with surface dewpoints in the 50s F. As surface
temperatures heat up during the day, weak instability is forecast to
develop along and near this moist axis. Low-level convergence and
large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level system will likely
support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. In addition
to the weak instability, RAP forecast soundings have moderate
deep-layer shear in the Mid-Atlantic with steep low-level lapse
rates exceeding 8 C/km. This could support a marginal wind-damage
threat during the afternoon, with the threat eventually
transitioning eastward into the Hudson River Valley.

..Broyles/Moore.. 05/06/2025