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Mesoscale Discussion 1663
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 07 2022

Areas affected...northwest IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 071908Z - 072115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Transient storm-scale rotation possible if storms can
beco*e surface based this afternoon.  A brief tornado is possible.

DISCUSSION...Subjective mesoanalysis shows an area of weak
southeasterly surface flow over northwest IA to the southeast of a
surface front draped from southwest to northeast across the middle
MO Valley.  Temperatures have warmed to around 80 deg with mid 70s
degree F dewpoints.  Forecast soundings (NAM, RAP) show some
enlargement in the low-level hodograph with a very moist boundary
layer (17 g/kg lowest 100 mb mean mixing ratio).  The Des Moines 88D
VAD shows a veering and strengthening wind profile with height from
the surface through 3-4 km, largely validating the forecast sounding
prognostication.  It remains unclear whether one or two storms will
root into the boundary layer and beco*e surface based over the next
1-2 hours.  If this occurs, the potential for a transient supercell
will probably increase and a localized risk for a brief tornado.

..Smith/Hart.. 08/07/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   42569543 42769495 42679385 42299368 41919402 42019530
            42229554 42569543