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Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CDT Sun Aug 07 2022

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
ARIZONA...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...IOWA...AND NORTHERN MAINE....

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHICAL CREATION ERRORS

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across parts of
Arizona, the Upper Midwest and central High Plains, and northern
Maine this afternoon and evening.

...c*/KS...
Morning surface analysis shows a persistent boundary extending
across northwest KS into southeast CO.  Dewpoints are in the 60s
along and north of the boundary across much of eastern CO, and it
appears that considerable daytime heating will occur over parts of
the area.  This will result in afternoon MLCAPE values of around
1000 J/kg over much of eastern CO, with values up to 2500 J/kg over
western KS.  Most 12z models agree that convection will form over
the foothills of central CO by mid afternoon and spread eastward
through early evening.  Winds aloft are sufficiently strong to help
propagate the convection off the higher terrain, as well as organize
a few of the updrafts.  Locally damaging wind gusts will be the main
threat, but a few storms in/near the foothills may produce hail.

Farther east in the plains, strong CAPE values and convergence along
the boundary may be sufficient for a landspout or two, along with
gusty/damaging winds.

...IA...
Widespread overnight convection has left an outflow boundary
extending across central IA.  It is unclear how much daytime heating
will occur in this area due to remnant clouds.  However, the
potential will exist for isolated gusty/damaging wind gusts in the
stronger cells this afternoon and evening if sufficient low-level
lapse rates can develop.

...Northern ME...
A surface cold front is sagging southward across Quebec towards
northern ME.  A moist and marginally unstable air mass will be
present this afternoon as storms initiate along the front.  Forecast
soundings suggest sufficient deep-layer shear for an isolated
rotating storm or two, capable of damaging wind gusts or hail.

...AZ...
Strong heating is occurring today over most areas of
central/southern AZ.  Clusters of thunderstorms are expected to
develop by mid-afternoon over the mountains of central/eastern AZ
and propagate southwestward.  The mesoscale details of convective
coverage are unclear, but there will be potential for damaging wind
gusts if storms can persist as they track into south-central AZ this
evening.

..Hart/Weinman.. 08/07/2022