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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CDT Sun Aug 07 2022

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN OREGON...

The main forecast update is to introduce a Scattered Isolated Dry
Thunderstorm risk area to portions of central to southern OR. Latest
CAM guidance has trended towards higher probabilities of
thunderstorms Monday afternoon ahead of the upper wave off the West
Coast. PWAT values are forecast to increase slightly over the next
24 hours with little boundary-layer moistening. This will promote
deep, dry sub-cloud layers with slim CAPE profiles favorable for dry
thunderstorms. Convective initiation is likely by late afternoon,
and storms may persist well into the overnight hours. A few storms
may result in strong outflow winds, especially along and east of the
Cascades where a convective wind signal is noted in latest ensemble
guidance.

..Moore.. 08/07/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1231 AM CDT Sun Aug 07 2022/

...Synopsis...
An upper-level ridge will continue to build across much of the
northern Rockies, while a closed upper-level low continues to move
onshore across parts of northern California and western Oregon.
Consequently, a gradual increase in deep-layer southerly flow will
co*mence across the Pacific Northwest.

...Pacific Northwest...
An area delineating the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has
been introduced for parts of the region. The co*bination of the
onshoring closed upper-level low and residual subtropical moisture
should promote diurnally driven convective development. The area has
been confined to where PWAT values are forecast to remain below 0.75
inches and where underlying fuels remain receptive to large-fire
spread.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...