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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY OVER
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong thunderstorms are possible across eastern
North Carolina and also parts of the Southeast Monday, perhaps
acco*panied by some risk for severe weather.

...Synopsis...
A negatively tilted upper trough extending from the upper Midwest
into the southern Appalachians early Monday will evolve into a
closed low over the lower Great Lakes during the day as a downstream
ridge amplifies across New England. Farther west, an upper-level low
will approach the British Columbia coast late Monday as a downstream
ridge moves across the Rockies/central Plains. Surface cyclogenesis
will occur along a front across GA/SC with the strengthening low
moving north near the mid-Atlantic/northeast U.S. coast. The
associated cold front will move steadily east/southeast across FL
Monday night as a warm front lifts north in tandem with the low.

...Southern Georgia/Florida...
Rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the eastern GA
vicinity early Monday in association with large-scale ascent and
developing surface low. In the wake of early day precipitation
weak-moderate MLCAPE may develop across southern GA/northern FL in
advance of the cold front. Widely scattered stronger storms will be
capable of severe hail and strong wind gusts during the afternoon.

Pockets of moderate MLCAPE are also expected across eastern/southern
portions of the FL peninsula Monday afternoon, where scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop along and in advance of the
cold front.  Although mid-level flow will be weaker, low-level
east-southeast flow will contribute to around 30 kts of effective
shear. Steep low-level lapse rates within a moist air mass will
promote some risk for isolated strong/severe gusts and perhaps hail.


...North Carolina Outer Banks Vicinity...
Weak instability may develop across eastern NC Monday afternoon
within the over-land warm sector as the intensifying surface low
moves north.  Increasingly favorable deep-layer shear would support
organized/supercell storm structures for a few hours during the
afternoon and early evening. Precipitation acco*panying the surface
low and cold front is expected to be widespread, however, and the
severe risk remains conditional on the degree of destabilization
that would support stronger updraft development.

..Bunting.. 04/17/2022