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Mesoscale Discussion 1661
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0519 PM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022

Areas affected...Upper Mississippi Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 062219Z - 070015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in convection is expected over the next
several hours. Wind is the most likely threat with this activity.

DISCUSSION...Remnants of early-day MCS that spread across the upper
MS Valley have progressed into northern WI. Scattered convection
trails along the southwestern flank of this longer-lived activity
across southern MN into northwestern IA where some increase in
updraft strength is currently noted over Palo Alto County IA. While
the primary short-wave trough has ejected northeast of this region,
stalled surface boundary draped from near EAU-RST-AXA will likely
provide the focus for potential robust convection this evening.
Given the lack of large-scale support, nocturnal increase in LLJ
into this boundary after sunset is expected to aid an
upward-evolving co*plex of storms that will likely propagate toward
southwest WI.

..Darrow/Guyer.. 08/06/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   43459473 44499224 44449068 42989076 42679339 42399503
            43459473