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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Fri Aug 05 2022

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL SD
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ND INTO NORTHWEST MN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail are
expected today across parts of the Dakotas into Minnesota.  Other
more isolated thunderstorm wind gusts will occur from the central
Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic region.

...20Z Update...

...Northern Plains...
Recent surface analysis places a weak frontal low over central SD,
with a cold front extending northeastward across eastern ND into
southeast Manitoba. Instability continues to build south of this
front across the Plains, with mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE over
2500 J/kg from KS in ND. Thunderstorms are still expected to develop
along the front across the northern Plains this afternoon and
evening. Strong buoyancy and moderate vertical shear is expected to
support organized/supercell storms capable of severe wind gusts and
hail. Recent guidance has shown higher potential storm coverage over
central SD, meriting a southward expansion of the 15% wind
probabilities into central SD.

...Mid Atlantic to Central Appalachians...
As discussed in MCD #1655, isolated to widely scattered gusts
primarily ranging from 45-60 mph are possible with the stronger
storms across the region this afternoon/evening.

...Portions of the Great Basin...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are still expected through early this
evening across the region. Modest buoyancy and shear may result in a
few stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts.

..Mosier.. 08/05/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Fri Aug 05 2022/

...Northern Plains...
Morning surface analysis shows a weak cold front extending across
the western Dakotas.  This boundary will move eastward today and
provide the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development.  Strong
heating, dewpoints near 70F, and steep mid-level lapse rates will
yield MLCAPE values 2000-3000 J/kg.  CAM solutions suggest storms
will form by late afternoon and early evening from central SD into
northwest MN.  Deep-layer shear is sufficient for
organized/supercell storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail
through the evening.

...Mid Atlantic to Central Appalachians...
Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from east TN into
much of VA, where dewpoints in the 70s will result in afternoon
MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg.  Mid level lapse rates are weak, and
forecast soundings show weak winds aloft through column. 
Nevertheless, pulse and occasional multicell storm clusters will
pose a risk of gusty and locally damaging wind gusts for a few hours
this afternoon.