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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Fri Aug 05 2022

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms may affects parts of the central
Plains and upper Mississippi Valley Saturday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging is forecast to be centered over the central Plains
early Saturday morning, covering much of the Southwest,
central/southern Plains, and MS Valley. This ridging is expected to
remain largely in place throughout the day, with some modest
dampening throughout its far northern periphery as a shortwave
trough moves from Pacific Northwest into the northern High Plains.
This shortwave trough will follow in the wake of another shortwave
moving across the Hudson Bay/Ontario. This train of shortwave
troughs will help maintain broad upper troughing over the Canadian
Prairie Provinces and far northern High Plains/northern Plains, with
modestly enhanced flow aloft extending through the base of this
troughing from WY through the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes.

Surface pattern is expected to feature a cold front stretching from
the MN arrowhead vicinity southwestward through central NE early
Saturday morning. This front is forecast to progress gradually
southward/southeastward during the day, ending the period extending
from central WI southwestward into western KS. Interaction between
this front and the warm and moist air mass across the central Plains
and Upper MS Valley will support thunderstorm development throughout
the day.

...Central Plains...Upper Midwest...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning to
the north of the cold front mentioned in the synopsis, supported by
warm-air advection across the frontal zone. Steep mid-level lapse
rates will likely still be in place amid modest vertical shear,
resulting in the potential for few updrafts capable of hail and/or a
damaging downburst.

This early morning activity should diminish as it moves
northeastward, with additional thunderstorm development anticipated
during the afternoon, both along the front and in its wake.
Thunderstorm initiation along the front appears most probable from
the north-central WI southwestward into north-central NE, where
daytime heating will push temperatures in the upper 90s/low 100s
amid mid to upper 60s dewpoints. Strong buoyancy will support
intense updrafts, but the highest storm coverage may be displaced
south of the stronger deep-layer vertical shear and high LCLs. These
conditions suggests a mostly outflow-dominant storm mode, with a few
damaging wind gusts are possible. Only exception is across WI and
southeast MN, where vertical shear is expected to be strong enough
for a few supercells. Here, isolated hail is possible in addition to
damaging wind gusts.

..Mosier.. 08/05/2022