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Mesoscale Discussion 0509
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0832 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

Areas affected...Central Mississippi and Central Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 171332Z - 171530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail
may affect parts of east-central Mississippi and west-central
Alabama through the morning.  It is unclear whether coverage of
severe storms will warrant a severe thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of showers and thunderstorms over
north-central MS includes a couple of intense cells with a history
of hail.  These storms are tracking east-southeastward at 25 knots,
and will likely persist through the morning into central Alabama. 
The activity appears to be associated with a weak shortwave trough
over AR/West TN, and in a region of modest elevated CAPE.  Forecast
soundings for this area show moderately steep mid-level lapse rates
and sufficient deep layer shear for convective organization and
occasional supercell structures.  Present indications are that a few
storms will continue to pose a risk of occasionally severe hail for
a few hours.  

Coverage of strong storms is likely to be limited, and the need for
a severe thunderstorm watch is uncertain.  However, convective
trends will be monitored.

..Hart.. 04/17/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   32048804 32718965 33329018 33909008 34118972 33828846
            33598756 32928649 32188608 31888623 31818738 32048804