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Mesoscale Discussion 0508
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0831 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

Areas affected...Northern North Dakota

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 171331Z - 171630Z

SUMMARY...A band of heavy snow is expected to persist through the
late morning. Snowfall rates between 1-2 inches/hour are possible.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KMBX over the past hour has shown an
increasingly organized, intensifying snow band developing from near
Stanely, ND southeastward towards the I-94 corridor. Surface
observations on the periphery of this band are already reporting
visibility reductions under one-half mile. While 15-20 mph winds are
noted this morning, blowing snow model probabilities suggest that
such visibility reductions are most likely attributable to heavy
snowfall rates rather than purely blowing snow. 

This band of heavy snow is mainly being driven by a co*bination of
lift ahead of an upper-level wave translating across the U.S./Canada
border and strong isentropic ascent within the 850-700 mb layer.
Based on the 12 UTC observed sounding from BIS and recent RAP
forecast soundings, this lift should be occurring near the bottom of
the DGZ, which will further support the potential for periods of
heavy snow. Snowfall rates between 1-2 inches/hour appear probable
across north-central ND (possibly as far east as the Devils Lake, ND
area) through the late morning hours before the more mesoscale
isentropic ascent begins to diminish.

..Moore.. 04/17/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   46630052 47210079 47740128 47980175 48220226 48580216
            49000134 49049903 48439849 47919842 47409851 46959886
            46699916 46509973 46480015 46630052