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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOUISIANA
VICINITY EASTWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe storms, possibly evolving into an organized
cluster, may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts, and
possibly a tornado or two, across parts of the lower Mississippi
Valley/central Gulf Coast vicinity Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
As an upper low/trough gradually departs the Northeast, a
lower-amplitude short-wave trough is forecast cross the central U.S.
on Sunday.  Meanwhile, weak ridging is forecast to gradually expand
across the West.

At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the
southeastern quarter of the country early, but will begin moving
back northward as a warm front during the day as a weak frontal low
develops over the Louisiana vicinity.  This low will move eastward
across the central Gulf Coast States through the afternoon and
evening, in tandem with the advance of the aforementioned upper
short-wave trough, reaching the southern Appalachians region
overnight.

...Sabine River Valley eastward to the Southeast...
Elevated convection is forecast to be ongoing at the start of the
period -- particularly from Arkansas eastward to western Tennessee
and northern Mississippi -- within a zone of warm advection north of
the surface cold front.  This convection will spread eastward into
the Southeast with time, though likely remaining slightly elevated
north of the eventually retreating front.  Still, potential for hail
approaching severe levels, and a few strong wind gusts, may
acco*pany a few of the stronger storms.

Meanwhile, a weak frontal wave should evolve through midday over the
northwestern Louisiana vicinity.  Diurnal heating of a moist (low
70s dewpoints) warm-sector boundary layer, beneath steep mid-level
lapse rates being advected eastward atop the region, will yield 1500
to 2500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE by early afternoon, from roughly the
Sabine River Valley eastward to the central Gulf Coast region.  As
large-scale ascent gradually increases ahead of the approaching
short-wave trough, expect convective development to occur by early
afternoon -- initially near the evolving frontal wave.  Given the
degree of CAPE expected, and flow gradually veering/increasing from
southwesterly at 10 to 15 kt in the boundary layer to around 50 kt
at mid levels resulting in shear favorable for updraft rotation,
expect at least a few supercells to evolve.  Along with potential
for damaging winds locally, very large hail is expected, and
possibly a tornado or two through the afternoon.

With time, new updraft development is expected eastward along the
surface front.  A few of the developing storms will likely beco*e
supercells, with attendant/all-hazard severe risk.  Meanwhile, the
Louisiana storms may gradually organize upscale into a cluster,
shifting east-southeastward with time, into the central Gulf Coast
region by the evening with some resulting increase in damaging wind
potential.

...Portions of southern Texas...
Several CAM runs continue to indicate isolated storm development
along the cold front trailing southwestward from the Louisiana
surface wave during the afternoon, as the cap is breached locally
allowing updrafts to utilize evolving/moderate instability. 
Development appears most likely from southwest of the Hill Country,
southwestward to the mountains just to the Mexican side of the
international border.  With mid-level west-northwesterlies in the 35
to 40 kt range supporting organization/rotation, large hail will be
possible.  Isolated development should continue through the
afternoon, followed by a gradual decrease into the evening and
associated onset of diurnal boundary-layer cooling.

..Goss/Weinman.. 04/17/2022