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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the Southeast Monday, perhaps acco*panied by some risk for severe
weather.

...Synopsis...
Within the mid-latitude westerlies, models continue to indicate that
large-scale mid-level troughing and downstream ridging will progress
 eastward, across the Pacific coast and through the Great Plains
during this period.  It appears that there may be some loss of
amplitude within this regime, while downstream flow beco*es more
amplified east of the Mississippi Valley through the western
Atlantic.  This is forecast to include the continuing evolution of a
rather significant negatively tilted trough, to the east of the
ridging, southeast of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region
through the upper Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic Coast by 12Z Tuesday.

A preceding perturbation in lower latitudes may undergo further
deformation while progressing across the southern/middle Atlantic
Coast states and offshore by Monday evening.  However, it appears
that associated forcing may contribute to another developing surface
wave along a frontal zone across Georgia through the Carolinas.  As
forcing for ascent associated with the amplifying upstream trough
increases, stronger cyclogenesis is forecast to proceed, from near
southern Mid Atlantic coastal areas northward toward Long Island and
southern New England late Monday through Monday night.

...Southeast...
Remnants of vigorous thunderstorm activity from late Sunday/Sunday
night may be ongoing at 12Z Monday across parts of southern Georgia
and northern Florida.  Although large-scale forcing for ascent
likely will be in the process of weakening across this region,
models suggest that insolation may contribute to mixed-layer CAPE in
excess of 1000 J/kg within the moist pre-frontal boundary-layer
through early afternoon.  Embedded within modest southwesterly to
westerly flow in the 850-500 mb layer (30-40+ kt), there appears at
least some potential for a few storms to re-intensify while
spreading into and across northern Florida/Georgia and southern
South Carolina coastal areas, acco*panied by a risk for locally
strong gusts and hail.

Various model output also continues to indicate that the Atlantic
coast sea breeze may beco*e a focus for isolated to widely scattered
strong thunderstorm development late Monday afternoon and evening,
mainly south of the Vero Beach vicinity.  A seasonably moist
boundary-layer may support CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, in the
presence of generally weak deep-layer mean flow and shear.  But
relatively cool mid-level temperatures may contribute to
thermodynamic profiles conducive to a risk for marginally severe
hail and locally strong wind gusts.

Farther north, severe weather potential across parts of eastern
North Carolina still appears largely conditional.  However, it might
not be out of the question that a destabilizing and increasingly
sheared warm sector of a deepening surface low could spread inland
of coastal areas late Monday afternoon or evening, acco*panied by
some risk for supercell development.

..Kerr.. 04/17/2022