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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk of severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across
the U.S., Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that short waves within the main branch of
westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific will remain
generally progressive through this period.  This includes one
amplified mid-level trough, which is forecast to migrate from the
lower Great Lakes/Mid Atlantic region northeastward toward the
Canadian Maritimes through Tuesday night.  Forcing for ascent
downstream of this feature appears likely to support further
deepening of a surface cyclone from southeastern New England coastal
areas into the lower St. Lawrence Valley, with a trailing cold front
advancing away from the Atlantic Seaboard.

While the primary mid/upper perturbation slowly progresses out of
the Northeast, models indicate that mid/upper troughing will be
maintained or perhaps continue to dig in a separate branch, across
the Bahamas and Caribbean, with substantive lower/mid tropospheric
cooling and drying in its wake as far south as the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico.

Upstream, a trailing short wave trough, migrating inland in advance
of a much more prominent digging trough across the eastern Pacific,
is forecast to progress into and across the northern Rockies by late
Tuesday night.  Destabilization aided by insolation beneath its
mid-level cold pool (including 500 mb temps below -30C) may
contribute to convection capable of producing lightning across parts
of the Pacific Northwest into northern Rockies.  Additionally,
mid/upper forcing for ascent is forecast to support surface
cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian Rockies, across southern
portions of Alberta into Saskatchewan.  Models suggest that a lower
amplitude mid-level wave to the south may also support surface
cyclogenesis to the lee of the Front Range of the Rockies.

Strengthening southerly low-level flow, to the east of deepening lee
surface troughing across much of the higher plains, may contribute
to an influx of low-level Gulf moisture currently banked up to the
Sierra Madre Oriental of Mexico.  However, this likely will occur
beneath a plume of east-northeastward advecting, warm and
increasingly capping elevated mixed-layer air.  While this will tend
to inhibit an appreciable risk for boundary-layer based storms
through this period, moisture return and lift based within lower/mid
tropospheric warm advection may support scattered weak thunderstorm
activity near the eastern and northern periphery of this plume.

..Kerr.. 04/17/2022