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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model output continues to generally indicate increasing
convective potential across the Great Plains into portions of the
Mississippi Valley as early as mid week.  However, any appreciable
severe weather threat still seems likely to remain rather isolated
into at least the latter portion of the co*ing work week or next
weekend, as large-scale mid-level troughing digs into and through
the southern mid-latitudes of the western United States.  This may
provide support for strong surface cyclogenesis across the central
Great Plains into Upper Midwest, which could contribute to the
evolution of an environment increasingly conducive to widespread
organized severe thunderstorm development.

There are still lingering indications that Gulf moisture return to
the warm sector may be less than optimal.  Perhaps more
significantly, models remain quite varied concerning embedded
shorter wavelength developments.  Latest model runs, in general, are
more progressive with the larger-scale mid-level troughing than 24
hours ago, but the ECMWF and ECENS remain substantively slower than
the GFS/GEFS.  For example, while guidance seems to point at next
Saturday as the period with most widespread severe weather
potential, the ECMWF/ECENS suggests that this may largely occur
across the central Great Plains, while the GFS/GEFS indicate that
this may be focused across the middle Mississippi Valley.  Given
these uncertainties (not to mention the days 6-8 time frame), severe
thunderstorm probabilities at any one location still appear less
than 15 percent at this time.