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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley, supporting
the eastward progression of a strong surface low from the central
Plains to the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A dryline will sweep
eastward across the southern Plains, promoting wildfire-spread
potential. Ahead of the surface low, increasing southerly flow will
advect an initially dry airmass over the central Appalachians,
supporting some potential for wildfire-spread in this region as
well.

...Southeast New Mexico into southern Texas...
As the dryline advances eastward across central Texas tomorrow
afternoon, the co*bination of strong isallobaric and downslope flow
will support up to 30 mph sustained westerly surface winds across
much of the southern High Plains into central Texas. RH should dip
to 15-25 percent across the Texas Panhandle into northern Texas,
with RH dropping to 10 percent in parts of southern Texas. Given
drying fuels across the region, widespread Elevated/Critical
highlights have been introduced. A squall line is expected to
develop across portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas late Monday
night into Tuesday morning, potentially dampening fuels. As such,
fire weather highlights in these areas may need to be removed if
appreciable rainfall accumulations are realized.

...Portions of the central Appalachians...
By afternoon peak heating, RH may dip to 30-35 percent across
portions of northeast Tennessee into southern West Virginia, as an
initially dry airmass is shunted northward with the approach of a
surface cyclone and acco*panying upper trough. Guidance consensus
suggests that boundary-layer flow will increase during the
afternoon, with 15 mph sustained southerly surface winds potentially
coinciding with the lower RH for a few hours. Given that such
conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights are
warranted.

..Squitieri.. 03/03/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...