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Mesoscale Discussion 1650
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022

Areas affected...Parts of the central Appalachians into the Mid
Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 041714Z - 041915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated damaging winds will increase in
coverage this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...c*nvection is increasing early this afternoon across
eastern WV and northwest VA, with some increasing cumulus also noted
across southern VA. Strong diurnal heating and rich low-level
moisture will support MLCAPE increasing to near or above 2000 J/kg
across the region this afternoon, as MLCINH erodes and storm
coverage continues to increase with time. Deep-layer shear is
generally expected to remain weak, but the thermodynamic environment
will support a threat of isolated and potentially damaging downburst
winds in association with the strongest storms. 

Midlevel cloudiness associated with an approaching MCV may result in
a relative minimum in storm coverage across parts of western VA, but
some potential exists for a loosely organized storm cluster to
develop and spread across northern VA into adjacent portions of MD,
as outflows consolidate with time. Due to the generally disorganized
nature of the threat, watch issuance is considered unlikely at this
time.

..Dean/Grams.. 08/04/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   38468071 39207948 39657882 39687754 39667714 38847666
            38137656 37767666 37707725 37777777 37937799 38157825
            38397869 38507916 38277993 38188027 38098056 38068093
            38248100 38468071