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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 AM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTERED OVER NORTHERN VIRGINIA INTO PARTS OF
MARYLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts or marginal hail will be possible Friday
afternoon across parts of the northern Plains, and over parts of
Virginia and Maryland.

...Northern Plains...
A shortwave trough will move from SK into MB during the day, with an
80+ kt midlevel speed max grazing northern portions of ND and MN.
Speeds up to 40 kt may occur as far south as SD. At the surface, a
cold front will move southeastward across the Dakotas, likely
extending from the Red River into central SD by 21Z, and pushing
into northern NE during the evening. A narrow plume of mid 50s to
perhaps 60s F dewpoints will interact with this front, over eastern
ND into SD, as heating contributes to 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE.

Hot temperatures as well as convergence along the front should lead
to diurnally driven storms after about 21Z, from southeast ND into
eastern and central SD. A substantial low-level jet will aid warm
advection and boundary-layer mixing, and should allow for
east/southeastward moving storms. Longer hodographs farther north
into MN may lead to a few left-moving cells with hail. At least
isolated severe gusts appear likely into SD within the heating
plume, along with marginal hail. Model spreads remain high regarding
low-level moisture and total CAPE.  

...Much of northern VA into MD...
Models have been consistent showing a concentrated area of
thunderstorms forming over the higher terrain and expanding east
across northern VA and MD, as strong heating leads to moderate
instability by afternoon. Forecast soundings reveal a favorable
pulse wind/hail scenario with weak shear and good lapse rates aloft
for vigorous diurnal convection. Marginal hail is most likely with
the initial storms, with gusty winds occurring as outflows beco*e
more numerous. The threat is expected to end around 01-02Z as the
boundary layer cools.

..Jewell.. 08/04/2022