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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal
Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper-level shortwave trough will move into the Northwest
Monday afternoon/evening. A broad upper-level trough in the Gulf
will sharpen as it approaches South Florida Monday evening. A
nebulous surface low in the Gulf will acco*pany the upper trough.
Diffuse surface boundaries in the eastern Gulf and South Florida
will be the focus for thunderstorm activity.

...South Florida/Keys...
A cluster of thunderstorms appears likely to be ongoing early Monday
off the southwestern Florida coast and perhaps near the Keys. This
activity will likely be east of the surface cold front and driven by
weak low-level warm advection. Current forecast guidance suggests
the greatest buoyancy will remain primarily over the Keys. Given the
stronger southwesterly flow aloft, it is possible a stronger storm
or two could develop. However, deep-layer shear will be parallel to
this activity, mid-level height falls will be neutral until late in
the period, and low-level wind fields will be rather weak. The
overall potential for even marginally severe storms continues to be
low. As stronger forcing arrives late, additional activity is
possible along the surface front in western Florida. However, it is
not clear if storms would be surface based or if buoyancy would be
sufficient for a severe threat.

...Northwest...
Strong wind fields will be in place across the region as a surface
low deepens west of the Olympic Peninsula. A line of at least
shallow, forced convection will impact portions of coastal
Washington/Oregon. A few stronger convectively enhanced wind gusts
are possible among the already strong synoptic flow. These gusts are
most likely along the immediate coast. Given minimal buoyancy, it
appears coverage of these convective gusts will be too isolated to
warrant highlights.

..Wendt.. 02/23/2025