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Mesoscale Discussion 1645
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CDT Wed Aug 03 2022

Areas affected...portions of Missouri and Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 515...

Valid 032043Z - 032215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 515
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for damaging wind gusts continues across WW515.
Additional development across southern MO should continue into this
evening.

DISCUSSION...As of 2030 UTC, regional radar imagery showed scattered
to numerous thunderstorms ongoing from central IL into eastern MO.
While a few stronger storms have been noted over the last 90
minutes, overall storm organization has been limited. Owing to the
very weak vertical shear (less than 20 kt) evident on area VAD/VWPs,
damaging gusts have mostly been confined to isolated stronger
downdrafts within small storm clusters. However, as storm clusters
gradually congeal into more linear arrangements this afternoon and
evening, a locally greater risk for damaging wind may evolve across
portions of eastern IL and far western IN. Thus, the severe risk for
damaging winds is expected to continue.

Farther south and west across MO, storm initiation has been slower
due to lingering cloud cover and weaker forcing for ascent. Recent
lightning data has however shown an increase over the last hour
suggesting storms are beginning to strengthen. Additional storm
development/maturation appears likely into this evening as the
airmass remains very unstable (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and minimally
inhibited. Recent HRRR runs do hint at some clustering suggesting
isolated damaging wind potential. However, it remains unclear how
far south and west the severe threat will develop. Should further
development result in outflow mergers and clustering of additional
storms, a locally greater risk for damaging wind gusts may develop
later this evening toward eastern MO and the MS River.

..Lyons.. 08/03/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   36559283 37469316 37919307 38319293 38619259 39149182
            39419116 39908983 40328894 40608840 40788757 40718715
            40598676 40508672 40308676 40098694 39588751 39138809
            38518884 37568999 37199054 36949115 36679163 36529196
            36559283