Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Mesoscale Discussion 1641
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CDT Wed Aug 03 2022

Areas affected...Chicago metro...southern Lake
Michigan...Michiana...southern Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 031813Z - 031915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm coverage/intensity is expected
through the afternoon.  A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be
needed for most of the discussion area.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus
field and developing thunderstorms over northern IL, which is
located to the east of an MCV and cirrus canopy.  Surface conditions
south of a west-east oriented outflow boundary/differential heating
zone are in the lower 90s with mid 70s deg F dewpoints.  RAP
forecast soundings indicate a very unstable airmass (3500+ J/kg
MLCAPE) has developed from northern IL eastward across northern IN
and southern Lower MI.  KLOT VAD data shows 30-40 kt southwesterly
flow in the 2-6 km AGL layer.  Given the background wind profile
supporting organized multicells and a very unstable airmass, it
seems likely that storms will intensify this afternoon with strong
to severe gusts (50-70 mph) beco*ing the primary hazard (hail
possible with the strongest cores).  Widely scattered wind damage
will most likely focus with the more robust clusters as they move
east from northern IL into Lower MI.

..Smith/Grams.. 08/03/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

LAT...LON   42178827 43208526 43658252 42978232 42168302 41398776
            41588819 41878833 42178827