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Mesoscale Discussion 0506
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0545 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022

Areas affected...Parts of eastern VA/MD...DE...and far southern NJ

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 162245Z - 170015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple strong to locally damaging wind gusts and
isolated small hail will be possible across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic for the next hour or two. Watch issuance will not be
needed.

DISCUSSION...Loosely organized multi-cell clusters will continue
tracking east-northeastward along and ahead of a cold front moving
into parts of the Mid-Atlantic during the next hour or two. Ahead of
this convection, diurnal heating has resulted in steep low-level
lapse rates with relatively deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles.
Despite meager surface-based buoyancy (SBCAPE near 500 J/kg), the
LWX VWP shows strong midlevel flow across the area, which could
support a couple strong to perhaps locally damaging wind gusts with
any organized multicells that develop. Small hail will also be
possible owing to elongated mid/upper-level hodographs and steep
midlevel lapse rates. Watch issuance will not be needed owing to the
marginal and localized nature of the threat.

..Weinman/Grams.. 04/16/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON   38037503 37567574 37877708 38427732 39017684 39597605
            39617542 39417463 39017446 38037503