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Mesoscale Discussion 0505
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0433 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022

Areas affected...Parts of LA...southern MS...southern AL...and the
western FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 162133Z - 170000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of isolated large hail and a couple locally
damaging wind gusts will continue spreading southward across parts
of the Gulf Coast this afternoon. The localized nature of the threat
precludes watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery shows an east-west oriented
outflow boundary moving southward across parts of the Gulf Coast
states, where generally anafrontal convection has been occurring.
Ahead of the outflow boundary, diurnal heating of a moist airmass
has resulted in 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. While VWPs ahead of the
ongoing convection show sufficient deep-layer shear (40-50 kts
effective bulk shear) for organized updrafts, low-level flow remains
quite weak and surface winds are generally veered. This will
generally result in a risk of sporadic large hail and perhaps a
couple locally damaging wind gusts with any convection that can keep
pace with the outflow boundary. The localized and marginal nature of
the threat precludes watch issuance.

..Weinman/Grams.. 04/16/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31838850 31768757 31698634 31128609 30188627 30058846
            29878983 30049114 30519221 30979264 31839276 32339244
            32499145 32219041 31858930 31838850