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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 02 2022

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
LOWER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms, some severe, are most likely over Lower Michigan
Wednesday, with at last isolated severe possible extending
southwestward across Missouri and into eastern Kansas.

...Lower MI southwestward into MO and eastern KS...
A shortwave trough will affect the Upper Great Lakes region as a
surface low moves northeastward out of Ontario. A cold front will
trail southwestward across northern MI, southern WI, and into the
lower MO Valley. Ample low-level moisture with dewpoints near 70 F
will co*bine with heating to produce moderate levels of instability
ahead of the front.

Early day convection associated with the low-level jet may produce a
few strong gusts or marginal hail over MI, as midlevel lapse rates
will be seasonably steep. Air mass recovery is likely in the wake of
any early storms, and potential outflow boundaries could locally
enhance low-level shear. Winds around 850 mb will exceed 40 kt,
though this, and deep-layer shear, will largely be parallel to the
front. Models suggest afternoon redevelopment will be robust, with
damaging gusts and a few reports of marginal hail most likely.
Mesoscale factors may contribute to a brief tornado threat, or
low-level rotation with the developing line.

Farther south across IL, MO, and into eastern KS, wind fields and
shear will be much weaker, though instability will be strong along
the front. Localized wind damage will be possible between 21-03Z,
possibly associated with southeastward-moving clusters of storms,
with motion dominated by propagation.

..Jewell.. 08/02/2022