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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and severe gusts,
will be possible across parts of the southern Plains from late
Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning.

...Southern Plains...
At mid-levels, a low will move eastward across the Desert Southwest
on Wednesday, as flow strengthens from the southwest over the
southern Plains. Moisture advection will take place during the day
across much of central and east Texas, in association with a 30 to
40 knot low-level jet. By late afternoon, surface dewpoints could
reach the 60s F in parts of the southern Texas Hill Country
extending eastward into east Texas. The models suggest that
scattered thunderstorms will first develop during the late afternoon
and early evening across parts of central and north Texas, along the
northern edge of the moist sector. At that time, forecast soundings
in north Texas have a sharp temperature inversion at the low-levels
with weak instability located above the inversion. These storms will
be elevated, and any severe threat with this activity should be
marginal. A gradual increase in convective coverage is expected over
the southern Plains as the mid-level system approaches from the
west.

During the evening, a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet is forecast to
move through west Texas. In association with the jet, large-scale
ascent and deep-layer shear are forecast to markedly increase. This
will likely lead to more vigorous convective development over
western parts of the Texas Hill Country during the mid to late
evening. Forecast soundings near Fredericksburg, Texas at 06Z have
MUCAPE increasing to around 1000 J/kg with effective shear near 50
knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 7.5 C/km. This should
support supercell development with isolated large hail. Some of the
storms could beco*e surface-based late Wednesday night, with a
threat for isolated severe gusts. The severe threat may persist
through daybreak Thursday morning as an MCS organizes and the system
approaches the southern Plains.

..Broyles.. 01/27/2025