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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous
discussion below.

..Thornton.. 01/26/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025/

...Synopsis...
Portions of eastern Arizona and far west/southwestern New Mexico
will continue to see elevated fire weather concerns through Monday
afternoon. The upper low currently deepening off the central CA
coast is forecast to reach peak intensity over the next 24 hours
over southern CA before gradually shifting east into the lower CO
River Valley by late Monday. This eastward shift will be influenced
by the ejection of a mid-level jet max on the southeastern fringe of
the upper low into northwest Mexico, which will promote surface
pressure falls across AZ/NM under the left-exit region. In response,
southerly low-level winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph,
which when coupled with an antecedent dry air mass (forecast RH
minimums between 10-20%), should promote elevated fire weather
conditions. Surface winds are expected to be strongest in proximity
to the surface trough, which most solutions agree will likely reside
along, if not just east of, the AZ/NM border. Localized critical
conditions appear possible within the higher terrain of the Gila
region in southwest NM, but the potential for widespread/sustained
critical conditions appears limited. Fuels across this area continue
to cure after several days of anomalously low dewpoints with ERCs
approaching the 90th percentile in some areas, and should support
the fire weather concern.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...