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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO
INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...

The two Elevated delineations have been joined into a single area,
as the latest guidance consensus suggests dry downslope flow will
envelop much of the central and southern lee of the Rockies
tomorrow/Sunday. Within the broader Elevated, two separate regimes
exist where Critical fire weather conditions may occur. Across the
central Plains (especially western Nebraska and immediate adjacent
areas), a 75+ kt mid-level jet streak will overspread the Critical
area by afternoon peak heating. Downslope flow and downward momentum
transport in a dry boundary layer behind a surface cold front will
encourage 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15-25
percent RH, atop fuels with forecast ERCs around the 90th
percentile. Critical conditions along the lee of the Rockies (from
southern Colorado into central New Mexico) will be driven primarily
by downslope flow, co*prised of 20+ mph sustained westerly surface
winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH. Forecast ERCs across
portions of the southern Critical delineation are also approaching
90 percent in spots, suggesting that fuels should be quite receptive
to fire spread.

..Squitieri.. 04/16/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022/

...Synopsis...
A belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the Rockies,
resulting in surface lee troughing and dry boundary-layer conditions
over the High Plains. Late in the period, a cold front will sweep
southward across the central High Plains, with breezy northerly
surface winds persisting in its wake.  

...Central and Southern High Plains...
Downslope warming/drying acco*panying the enhanced midlevel westerly
flow will result in 20-25 percent minimum RH over the central High
Plains, where strong west-northwesterly surface winds of 20-25 mph
will be possible. The co*bination of dry/windy conditions and
critically dry fuels will support high-end elevated conditions. If
guidance trends any lower with RH across this region, Critical
highlights could be needed. Farther south, a drier airmass
characterized by 10-15 percent minimum RH will develop. However,
current indications are that breezy surface winds of 15-20 mph will
generally be brief in duration.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...