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Mesoscale Discussion 0504
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022

Areas affected...central and southern Mississippi and a small part
of eastern Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 161639Z - 161915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
as they expand southeastward across Mississippi. Damaging gusts and
a few hail reports will be possible.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has emerged across the ArkLaMiss,
along and north of a weak front reinforced by outflow. Meanwhile,
instability continues to increase south of this boundary with
temperatures approaching 80 F and ample moisture contributing to
MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg.

Westerly low-level winds will maintain an unstable feed of air
toward this storm cluster and the boundary in general as heating
continues upstream. Moderate mid to high level flow out of the
west/northwest should favor east/southeast storm motion, with
rightward propagation increasingly likely as the air mass continues
to warm and outflow production increases. Locally damaging wind
gusts may occur, and marginal hail as well with the stronger cores.

..Jewell/Hart.. 04/16/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   33209022 33018948 32718883 32408855 31988851 31548850
            31118861 30878908 30948951 31649121 32059121 32769108
            32879099 33209022