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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Mon Aug 01 2022

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OH VALLEY AND
MID-MO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms, mainly in the form of damaging gusts
and a tornado or two, will be possible, centered on this evening
into early tonight across the Ohio Valley. A swath of mainly severe
wind gusts and some hail is also possible across parts of northern
Nebraska to western Iowa this evening.

...OH Valley...
Decayed remnants of an early morning MCS have spread into southwest
OH and northern KY. Subsidence in its wake and the southern
progression of outflow render uncertainty on when/where
redevelopment will occur later today. Large buoyancy will develop
from the Mid-MO to Lower OH Valleys amid an elevated mixed layer
extending southeast from the north-central Great Plains with peak
MLCAPE approaching 4000 J/kg centered on southern IL. Weak low-level
warm advection atop the residual convective outflow/baroclinic zone
will likely be the primary driver for redevelopment. This will
beco*e more likely into the early to mid-evening, especially with
eastern extent where mid-level lapse rates are weaker. 

Adequate low-level veering of the wind profile with height but
backing of mid to upper flow should support predominantly cluster
with embedded supercell modes. Damaging winds and marginally severe
hail will be the main threats, though a tornado or two could occur
with embedded supercells based on rich low-level moisture (70-74 F
boundary-layer dew points) and hodograph curvature (effective SRH
near 200 m2/s2). Overnight, severe potential should wane as
convective outflows spread southeast away from the instability axis.

...North-central/northeast NE to the Mid-MS Valley...
At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected near the
intersection of the dryline, lee trough, and western flank of the
Mid-MO Valley buoyancy plume. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates and
boundary-layer dew points in the 60s will yield a pronounced
gradient in MLCAPE, nearing 3000 J/kg over the Mid-MO Valley.

Weak southerly low-level flow beneath northwesterlies that
strengthen with height from the mid to upper levels will support a
couple supercells initially developing with a threat for isolated
large hail and severe wind gusts. With time this evening, a small
cluster may spread east across the MO River into IA as warm
advection intensifies. Guidance is quite varied in how this
evolution will take place, likely owing to the modest large-scale
ascent, robust MLCIN south of the baroclinic zone, and tight MLCAPE
gradient to the north. It is plausible that a corridor of severe
wind gust and hail potential may be maintained into the overnight to
the east of the Mid-MS Valley.

..Grams/Lyons.. 08/01/2022