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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Mon Aug 01 2022

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds and hail will
be possible on Wednesday from parts of the lower Missouri valley
northeastward into the Great Lakes region.

...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the mid to upper
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, as an associated cold front
advances southeastward across the upper Midwest. Ahead of the front,
thunderstorm development is expected to take place near a
pre-frontal trough during the day from the lower Missouri Valley
northeastward into lower Michigan. Along the pre-frontal trough,
surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower 70s F, should enable
moderate instability to develop by afternoon. In addition to
moderate instability, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be generally
between 25 and 35 knots along much of the front. This co*bined with
steep low-level lapse rates should be sufficient for a marginal
wind-damage threat. A few of the stronger updrafts could also have
hail.

..Broyles.. 08/01/2022