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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Mon Aug 01 2022

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with large hail and wind damage will be
possible from Tuesday evening into the early overnight in parts of
the Upper Mississippi Valley.

...Upper Mississippi Valley...
A shortwave trough, and an associated 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet,
will move quickly eastward across southern Canada and the northern
High Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will move into
the northern Plains. During the day, moisture advection ahead of the
front will result in a corridor of maximized low-level moisture from
eastern Iowa northward into eastern Minnesota. Strong instability is
expected to develop along this corridor by afternoon but a capping
inversion should keep convective coverage isolated through much of
the day. The current thinking is that scattered storms will form
during the evening as the cap weakens and as a 40 to 50 knot
low-level jet strengthens. The storms are forecast to move eastward
across far eastern Minnesota and into northwestern and north-central
Wisconsin during the evening.

NAM forecast soundings near Minneapolis for 03Z/Wednesday have
MLCAPE near 4000 J/kg, 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8.0 C/km,
and 0-6 km shear around 35 knots. This should support supercell
development with large hail and wind damage possible. Although the
environment looks good for a severe threat, the timing of convective
development will likely determine the magnitude of the severe
threat. Convective initiation earlier in the evening would extend
the window for a severe threat, and be more favorable. The severe
threat should continue into the late evening as storms move eastward
into north-central Wisconsin.

..Broyles.. 08/01/2022